# Modern Analytics · Baseball Level 6: Advanced

Baseball · Level 6: Advanced · Insporta Book (https://book.insporta.app/baseball/level-6/modern-analytics/)

OBP and OPS, Moneyball, Bill James and sabermetrics, wins above replacement, wOBA and wRC+, FIP, BABIP and luck, run differential, park factors, and measuring defence.

## Test 1: OBP and OPS

- OPS is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. (Source: General baseball reference)
- An OPS near .900 or more is star level; about .700 to .750 is average. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Reaching base by any means avoids making an out. (Source: General baseball reference)
- An on-base percentage of .400 means not making an out four times in ten. (Source: General baseball reference)
- OBP and slugging use different scales, yet OPS just adds them. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Ruth's career OPS was about 1.164. (Source: General baseball reference)
- OPS+ sets league average at 100 and adjusts for parks. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Higher OPS is better. (Source: General baseball reference)
- OBP plus SLG. (Source: General baseball reference)
- .400 plus .500 is .900. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 2: Moneyball

- Michael Lewis wrote about Oakland's 2002 season. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Beane used data to compete on a small budget. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Oakland found that on-base skill cost little in the market. (Source: General baseball reference)
- The A's could not outspend rich clubs. (Source: General baseball reference)
- The book came out in 2003. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Their 20 straight wins set an American League record at the time. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Pitt earned an Oscar nomination for the role. (Source: General baseball reference)
- 2002, 2003, 2011. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Walks were cheapest; steals were overvalued. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Moneyball tells how Oakland used data to compete. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 3: Bill James and sabermetrics

- The word comes from SABR, the Society for American Baseball Research. (Source: General baseball reference)
- James built the field with his yearly Baseball Abstract. (Source: General baseball reference)
- SABR was founded in 1971. (Source: General baseball reference)
- James joined Boston in late 2002; the club won in 2004, its first title since 1918. (Source: General baseball reference)
- His self-published Abstract grew into a cult classic. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Data that questioned traditions met resistance. (Source: General baseball reference)
- It tested common beliefs against the numbers. (Source: General baseball reference)
- 1971, 2002 and 2004. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Scouting came first, then sabermetrics, then tracking data. (Source: General baseball reference)
- James wrote his Baseball Abstract from his own data work. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 4: Wins above replacement

- WAR estimates a player's total value in wins. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A replacement is a minor-leaguer or free agent available for little. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Eight or more WAR is an elite season. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Two WAR is a solid regular. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Hitting, running and fielding are combined in wins. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs calculate WAR differently. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A player worse than a replacement has negative WAR. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Higher WAR is better; below zero is worse than replacement. (Source: General baseball reference)
- About 8, about 2, about 0. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Eight minus two is about six wins. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 5: wOBA and wRC+

- 100 is average; each point above is one percent better. (Source: General baseball reference)
- wRC+ compares a hitter's run creation to the league. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Each outcome gets a value based on how many runs it is worth. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A hitter in a hitter's park would otherwise look better. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Weights reflect how many runs each outcome produces. (Source: General baseball reference)
- wOBA is scaled to look like on-base percentage. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Weighted stats track what actually produces runs. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Higher is better; 100 is average. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Homers are worth most, then doubles, then walks. (Source: General baseball reference)
- wRC+ of 100 means exactly league average. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 6: FIP and pitching independent of defence

- FIP keeps only what the pitcher controls without his fielders. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Good or bad fielding behind a pitcher no longer skews the figure. (Source: General baseball reference)
- McCracken's work around 2000 led to DIPS and FIP. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Bad luck or bad defence can push ERA above FIP. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A constant makes FIP read like an ERA. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A strikeout is an out without any help. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A home run is the worst outcome a pitcher controls. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Strikeouts help; walks hurt; homers hurt most. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A big gap above FIP suggests bad luck that may even out. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A FIP far below ERA often points to bad luck or poor defence. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 7: BABIP and luck

- It leaves out strikeouts and home runs. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Most hitters and pitchers sit near .300 over time. (Source: General baseball reference)
- An unusually high BABIP often falls back over time. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Speed turns some ground balls into infield hits. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Where a ball in play lands is partly chance. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Extreme results tend to move back towards average. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Line drives fall for hits far more often. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Liners fall most often; pop-ups almost never. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Lucky starts usually fade. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Lucky bloopers do not keep landing. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 8: Run differential

- It shows how much a team outscores its opponents. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Run differential predicts future records better than wins so far. (Source: General baseball reference)
- It estimates win share from runs scored and allowed. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Close-game luck tends not to last. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Analysts often use about ten runs per win. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Good relievers can turn one-run games into wins. (Source: General baseball reference)
- The team has given up more than it has scored. (Source: General baseball reference)
- The bigger the positive figure, the stronger the team. (Source: General baseball reference)
- RS² divided by RS² plus RA². (Source: General baseball reference)
- Run differential shows real strength. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 9: Park factors

- Denver's Coors Field sits about a mile above sea level. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Thin air gives less drag on the ball. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Storing balls in a humidor keeps them from drying out. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Above 100 favours hitters; below 100 favours pitchers. (Source: General baseball reference)
- A hitter at Coors may look better than he is. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Deep fences turn some home runs into outs. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Less air resistance means less movement. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Higher numbers favour hitters. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Controlled storage keeps them from drying out. (Source: General baseball reference)
- One row of seats at Coors marks a mile above sea level. (Source: General baseball reference)

## Test 10: Measuring defence

- Statcast's OAA compares the outs a fielder makes with what was expected. (Source: General baseball reference)
- How far the fielder had to go, and how fast, sets the difficulty. (Source: General baseball reference)
- DRS turns fielding plays into runs saved against average. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Errors could not tell how much ground a fielder covers. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Five-star catches have a catch probability of 25% or less. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Fielding data steadies only over larger samples. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Framing and blocking only became measurable with tracking data. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Lower catch probability means a harder catch. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Fielding percentage is oldest; OAA came with Statcast. (Source: General baseball reference)
- Catch odds of 25% or less earn five stars. (Source: General baseball reference)

Sources: General baseball references, WBSC and league material, coaching manuals; original questions authored, nothing reproduced. Numbered rules belong to the Rules category.

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