# Progressive Passes & Carries · Football Level 8: Expert

Football · Level 8: Expert · Insporta Book (https://book.insporta.app/football/level-8/progressive-passes-carries/)

Progressive Passes & Carries in Football (Level 8: Expert) on Insporta: 100 sourced facts behind 10 tests. Covers: what counts as progressive; and more.

How the ball moves forward in the data: progressive passes and carries by each provider's rules, FIFA's line breaks, entries into the final third and the box, and the players who carry it.

## Test 1: What counts as progressive

- Besides the distance rule, FBref counts every completed pass into the penalty area as progressive. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Clearances and long kicks from deep easily gain distance without doing much, so the zone is excluded. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Measuring from the furthest point reached recently stops a team from 'progressing' by passing back and then forward again. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Wyscout asks for 30 m inside the own half, 15 m for a pass from the own half into the opponent's, and 10 m inside the opponent's half. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Ten metres near the opponent's box change the danger a lot; ten metres near one's own box change very little. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- FBref measures ten yards from the furthest recent point; Wyscout uses zone-based thresholds of 30, 15 and 10 metres. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The furthest point of the recent passes is where the backward pass started, and the second pass ends only five yards beyond it. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The thresholds are 10, 15 and 30 metres: the nearer the goal, the less ground a pass needs to gain. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Only completed passes are considered; the gain is measured from the recent furthest point, and deep starts are excluded. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A enters the penalty area, which always counts; B starts in the defending 40% and C gains too little ground. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 2: Carries and progressive carries

- Carries record the ball moving at a player's feet; dribbles, or take-ons, record attempts to go past an opponent. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Like passes from deep, carries that stay in the defending half gain ground that rarely matters, so they are left out. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- It records a player moving the ball himself into the third of the pitch nearest the opponent's goal. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A winger who takes the ball from halfway to the box covers ground at his feet that other players cover by passing. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A failed take-on is counted separately; being dispossessed is having the ball taken while simply in possession. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A miscontrol is a player failing to bring the ball under control, so possession is lost without any opponent's action. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Covering ground with the ball is not the same as taking it towards goal; progressive carries measure only the second. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The winger receives wide, carries the ball infield, crosses the line of the penalty area and only then shoots or passes. Under FBref's rule a carry into the penalty area counts as progressive however short it is. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Every carry into the box counts as progressive, and every progressive carry is a carry, so each figure sits inside the one before. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- He moves the ball well towards goal at his feet and ends in the opponent's half, which is a progressive carry. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 3: Line breaks in FIFA's reports

- FIFA's new metrics, including line breaks and offers to receive, were released during and after the matches in Qatar. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- FIFA splits the opponent into lines and records completed passes that go past one or more of them. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- The team without the ball is read as three horizontal lines, and each pass is checked against them. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- Behind the back line there is only the goalkeeper; beating the front line still leaves two lines to play through. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- FIFA records runs and movements that offer the ball carrier a pass, whether or not the pass is played. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- Compact blocks protect the centre first, so the gaps between players there close quickly. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- Receiving in the space between midfield and defence lets a player turn and run at the last line before it can reset. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- Each line beaten leaves fewer defenders between the ball and the goal. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- The fewer defenders left between the receiver and goal, the more dangerous the reception. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))
- The ball passes the two away forwards and the four midfielders and is received in front of the back four. (Source: FIFA Enhanced Football Intelligence (2022 World Cup))

## Test 4: Passes into the final third and the box

- The count covers completed open-play passes that enter the third of the pitch nearest the opponent's goal. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- It records open-play passes that reach a team-mate in the penalty area, whatever their length. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Most goals come from inside the box, so a completed pass there is much closer to a real chance. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Reaching the final third is common; getting the ball into the box is the step its attacks are failing. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Deep completions count passes, crosses excluded, that reach a team-mate within roughly 20 yards of the opponent's goal, an alternative to box entries. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A direct team does not need long spells on the ball; quick breaks take the ball into the box straight away. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Splitting out crosses shows whether a team gets into the box by combination and carries or by crossing. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The final third starts about 35 metres out, the box 16.5 metres out and the six-yard box 5.5 metres out. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Each pass is logged under a different count: a progressive pass, a final-third entry and a box entry. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- B starts outside the final third and ends in the box; A stops short of the box, and C starts inside the final third already. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 5: Ball carriers of the modern game

- Doku arrived in August 2023 as a direct dribbler who carries the ball at full-backs. (Source: Club and match reports (BBC Sport, club statements))
- Davies, a winger turned left-back, covers large distances with the ball at speed. (Source: Club and match reports (BBC Sport, club statements))
- When a defender is beaten, another must leave his zone to stop the carrier, which frees a team-mate. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A carrier who loses the ball in midfield has team-mates ahead of him, so the opponent can break into the space behind. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Iniesta's quick transfer of the ball from one foot to the other let him carry through tight midfield spaces. (Source: Club and match reports (BBC Sport, club statements))
- With the opponent still out of shape, the ball carrier can cover large distances before anyone meets him. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Against a compact side, a second defender arrives quickly, so holding the ball too long turns a carry into a turnover. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The carry is a decoy as much as a run: its value is the defender it pulls out of position. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Vinícius arrived in Madrid in 2018, Davies at Bayern in January 2019 and Doku at City in 2023. (Source: Club and match reports (BBC Sport, club statements))
- Wingers are the players most often asked to take the ball at their feet towards goal, so they top carry tables. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 6: Switches of play in the data

- FBref's switches are passes that cover more than 40 yards across the width of the pitch. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A switch may gain no ground towards goal, but it takes the ball to the side where the defence has fewer players. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Event data only says the pass was completed; the positions of nearby defenders show whether the receiver had time. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A block that slides to the ball side has fewer players on the far side, so switching is the natural route round it. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- With the full-backs inside, the wingers hold the touchlines, and a long switch is the quickest way to reach the free one. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A diagonal that crosses the pitch and moves the ball ten yards past its furthest recent point meets both definitions. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A failed long switch hands the ball over on the side where the passing team has few players to counter-press. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The pitch is about 68 metres wide; only the last of these covers most of it. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Attempts say how often a team tries, completions whether the pass arrived, and free receptions whether it achieved anything. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The ball crosses almost the whole width of the pitch to 7 on the far touchline, which is a switch. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 7: Progression by role

- A centre-back and a number 10 receive the ball in very different places, so their progression numbers are not like for like. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Passes that begin in the deepest 40% are left out, and a goalkeeper's distribution starts there by definition. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Keeping the ball moving under pressure lets centre-backs, full-backs and 8s find the forward passes that show up in the data. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- An overlapping full-back runs long distances down the wing; an inverted one moves into midfield and passes more. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Passing and carrying are the two ways to move the ball forward, and the per-90 rates of both show the full picture. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Near the box there are fewer yards to gain, and a 10's final passes are counted as key passes or box entries instead. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Two players now take the ball from the centre-backs, so each of them has fewer chances to play forward. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The build-up starts at the goalkeeper and moves up through each role to the space behind the opponent's midfield. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The pass is only progressive if it gains the required ground; the reception facing forward is what makes it useful. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- B carries forward 3.8 times per 90 against 2.3 progressive passes; A does most of his progressing with passes. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 8: Progressive receptions

- It credits the receiver of each completed progressive pass, showing who the team's forward passes go to. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Forward passes are aimed at the most advanced players, so wingers and strikers receive the most of them. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A pass forward needs someone moving into space to receive it; the two figures show both halves of the action. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Receiving forward passes around halfway or facing his own goal gives a striker few chances to shoot himself. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Being open for forward passes in midfield is a skill of scanning and positioning, not only of passing. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- However good his movement, a player only receives if a team-mate sees him and plays the pass. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Most goals come from inside the box, so a forward who receives there often gets more and better chances. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The move away first creates the space; the pass is played into the run rather than to his feet. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A carry is his own action, a pass needs a team-mate to receive it, and a reception needs a team-mate to pass it. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- 6's forward pass finds 11 running into space, so 11 is credited with receiving a progressive pass. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 9: The cost of losing the ball

- Risky forward passes and carries win ground but also fail more, so both sides of the trade belong together. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A turnover close to one's own goal leaves the opponent a short route to a chance before anyone can recover. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Safe passes complete more often but create little; a creator's misplaced through balls are the price of his chances. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A player who passes sideways completes nearly everything; one who tries to break lines misses more but does more. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Losing the ball near the opponent's goal is rarely punished; losing it in the middle of one's own half often is. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Players asked to beat defenders lose the ball more; the question is whether the chances outweigh the losses. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Keeping the ball a lot means playing out from the back, and a lost pass there is close to one's own goal. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- The nearer to one's own goal the ball is lost, the shorter the opponent's route to a chance. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A lost pass in the first phase catches the team spread out for its own attack, which is why the break arrives with numbers. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Most of the marks sit around the team's own penalty area, where a turnover leads straight to a chance against. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

## Test 10: Where progression numbers mislead

- Moving the ball forward helps only if the team keeps it; forward passes that are lost straight away inflate the count. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- More possession means more passes of every kind, including progressive ones, whatever the player's quality. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Dividing by possession shows how much a player progresses per unit of the ball his team has. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A dead ball is played with the opponent standing off, so the ground it gains says little about open-play progression. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A ten-yard pass past nobody and one that splits two lines count the same in a simple progressive tally. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- A side chasing a goal plays more forward passes and faces a deeper opponent, which inflates its numbers. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Unpressed centre-backs against deep blocks can rack up progressive passes that more pressured players never could. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Role and possession make the players comparable; destination and turnovers show quality and cost. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- Each step adds a condition: direction, then distance gained, then opponents beaten. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))
- B makes 6 per 90 with 42% possession; A makes 8 with 65%, which is fewer per unit of the ball. (Source: Football analytics literature (Opta, StatsBomb, FBref definitions))

Sources: IFAB Laws of the Game / FIFA & UEFA technical reports / Opta, StatsBomb and FBref definitions / club and analyst publications / peer-reviewed research

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